光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250424

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 23, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 39,135 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.7%, and the position decreasing by 5,250 lots to 60,991 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,865 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2505 contract closing at 8,930 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.08%, and the position increasing by 6,063 lots to 18,250 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 65 yuan/ton [2]. - The industrial silicon production cut plan has been further expanded. Yili will stop production in early May, and the resumption of production in the southwest has been postponed. Due to severe losses, some production capacities have shifted to sectors such as ferroalloys. In addition, the sharp decline in polysilicon prices has further dragged down industrial silicon. Currently, the speed of silicon plant shutdowns is much lower than the pace of price declines, and subsequent production cuts are unlikely to reverse the current situation, and the price may continue to bottom out. The terminal demand for polysilicon still shows signs of further stalling. Under the pressure of structural mismatch, weak expectations will deepen further. A bearish outlook is still maintained, and attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy trends, while being vigilant against abnormal movements before the delivery month [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract was 8,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan from the previous day; the price of the near - month contract was 8,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades remained unchanged, while the price of the oxygen - free 553 silicon in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan to 8,950 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 100 yuan to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 150 yuan to 65 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract was 39,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,115 yuan from the previous day; the price of the near - month contract was 39,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,115 yuan. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged at 42,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 1,115 yuan to 2,865 yuan/ton [4]. - Organosilicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton for raw rubber, 14,000 yuan/ton for some products, and 13,300 yuan/ton for 107 glue. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,700 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts at the GFE decreased by 74 tons to 69,820 tons. The total industrial silicon inventory (weekly) increased by 595 tons to 351,805 tons, and the total inventory including factory warehouses increased by 3,200 tons to 407,300 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][14][15][16]. - Inventory: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][19][20][21][22]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][27][28][30][31]. 3. Research Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst; Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [33][34]