铁矿石：宏观情绪缓和，建议偏空对待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish approach towards the iron ore market [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term supply - demand relationship of iron ore has improved, supporting the price, but the continued upside for the black series is limited. The mid - term supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose. The price will mainly move in a range, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level, with molten iron production maintaining around 2.4 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks. However, the profits of blast furnace steel mills have been significantly compressed, and the impact of tariffs on exports will gradually emerge. Although short - term demand remains high due to pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, the rise and duration of molten iron production are expected to be limited [3][4] Inventory - Steel mill inventories continue to decline, and they are expected to maintain low inventory levels and purchase on - demand. Port inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks due to strong domestic steel mill demand and a phased decline in arrivals. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price pressure range for the 2509 contract is 720 - 730 yuan/ton [4]