东海期货研究所晨会观点精萃-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US continues to release signals of trade relaxation, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The Chinese foreign exchange regulator aims to correct pro - cyclical market behaviors, alleviating the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Domestic policy support and US - China trade relaxation signals strongly support the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; bonds are expected to fluctuate at high levels with cautious long positions; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors, with black metals being weak in the short - term, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals expected to rebound, and precious metals fluctuating at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US tariff policies lead to rising prices, slowing economic activities, and a 16 - month low in business activities. The US President's statements on tariff reduction and exemption boost the US dollar and global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's actions ease RMB exchange rate pressure, and domestic policies and US - China trade signals support the domestic market [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declines slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, agriculture, and hotel tourism. However, short - term risk appetite is supported, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market experiences a significant correction. Factors such as the US government's attitude towards tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar, and economic data affect the market. In the long - term, the decline of the US government's credit and trade policy uncertainties support the fundamentals of gold, and a correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but faces greater correction pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The spot and futures prices of steel rebound, and market trading volume recovers. Demand is recovering, and inventory is decreasing, but supply also has room to increase. The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and an interval - oscillation approach is recommended [5]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebound due to macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals are relatively strong. Iron - water production has room for further increase, and supply is expected to rise in the second quarter. An interval - oscillation approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the peak of iron - water production [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable, but the production willingness of silicon - manganese enterprises is decreasing. The short - term prices are expected to oscillate within an interval [6][7]. Energy - chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about OPEC's production increase outweighs the impact of potential trade - tariff relaxation, causing the oil price to decline [8]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the decline of oil prices. The market shows a north - south differentiation, and its fundamentals lack driving forces and mainly follow the movement of crude - oil prices [8]. PX - The external price of PX rebounds with crude oil, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern similar to PTA [8]. PTA - The basis of PTA declines slightly. Although tariff - relaxation news boosts the price, terminal orders are poor, and downstream inventory pressure increases. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The de - stocking of port inventory is limited, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [9]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber rebounds slightly with polyester. However, domestic demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. It will follow the movement of crude oil but with a smaller increase [10][11]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang rises slightly. Inventory shows a slight change, and the 05 contract price will oscillate, while the 09 contract may face supply pressure [12]. PP - The domestic PP market shows a narrow - range adjustment. Although downstream开工 declines, upstream maintenance increases, and supply - side reduction is expected to ease the pressure, and the price is expected to repair through oscillation [13]. LLDPE - The PE market price adjusts. Import volume is expected to decline, and the price will oscillate with limited downward space in the short - term, but face pressure from new production capacity in the long - term [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Global manufacturing PMI is better than expected. A copper mine accident and the decline in processing fees affect the market. With strong demand, the inventory of refined copper is decreasing, and the short - term price will continue to rebound [16]. Aluminum - Trump's statement on tariff reduction boosts market sentiment. The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, but the long - term trend still depends on tariff negotiations and domestic policies. The short - term price may rebound, but it is bearish in the medium - term [16]. Tin - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the mining area. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is differentiated. The inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound with limited space [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans rises due to the relaxation of trade tensions and a weak US dollar. The sowing progress is normal [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The slow recovery of oil - mill operations has led to a significant increase in the spot basis. With the arrival of imported soybeans and the resumption of operations, the high basis is expected to decline. Near - month contracts may face limited upside [19]. Vegetable Oils and Meals - Different vegetable oils and meals have different market conditions. For example, soybean oil inventory is decreasing, palm oil demand is expected to be stable, and rapeseed meal is in the demand season but may face inventory risks [20]. Livestock Pigs - The market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. Although there is seasonal demand for piglets, short - term supply pressure may increase, and the price may face pressure around May [21][22]. Corn - The corn market faces upper - limit pressure from weak demand and high inventory and lower - limit support from factors such as low inventory in production areas and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [22].