生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250424

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The basis for the view is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak, and the increasing live - weight of pigs indicates inventory accumulation by farmers [4]. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On April 23, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 665 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly subject to spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectation of limited increase in subsequent supply, the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, and potential increase in far - month breeding costs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,239 lots in positions today, with an open interest of about 80,000 lots. The highest price was 14,490 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,325 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - to - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Market bearish logic: Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support for pig prices is limited in Q2 and Q3 [3]. - Market bullish logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; the subsequent increase in supply is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase pig breeding costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak in Q2 and Q3, the live - weight of pigs is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by farmers, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Market Overview - On April 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.98 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.97 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.2%) from the previous day. In Sichuan, it was 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - For futures prices, all contracts showed a decline on April 23 compared to the previous day, with the decline rate of the 09 contract being - 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 90 yuan/ton (17.48%) to 605 yuan/ton [6].