菲莫国际：HNB稳健增长，口含烟延续高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of $9.301 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and an adjusted year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The new tobacco revenue reached $3.895 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.0% and an adjusted growth of 20.4%. The new tobacco segment now accounts for 41.9% of total revenue, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, moving closer to the company's target of two-thirds by 2030 [2][3] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was $2.690 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, driven by product mix optimization and price increases in both new tobacco and traditional cigarettes [2] - The company’s HNB (Heated Not Burned) product sales reached 37.09 billion units in Q1 2025, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase, with a global penetration rate of 5.7%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Japan, the adjusted sales growth for IQOS reached 9.3%, with a penetration rate of 32.4%, surpassing 50% market share in 13 major cities and 8 prefectures [3] - The company’s nicotine pouch sales were 5.3 billion units in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with strong performance in both the U.S. and non-U.S. markets [4] - The company anticipates a global tobacco market decline of approximately 1% in 2025, while projecting a 12%-14% increase in new tobacco product sales, with HNB sales expected to grow by 10%-12% [4] - The company aims for IQOS to capture a 10% market share in the U.S. cigarette and HNB market by 2030 [4]