GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-24 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies at ports and anticipates growth in city duty-free sales [1] - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, with duty-free and taxable goods generating 38.67 billion yuan and 17.10 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -12.58% and -23.49% [1] - The company’s gross margin in Q4 2024 decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 28.54%, attributed to declining sales and increased promotional efforts [2] - The total number of tourists received in Hainan in 2024 was 97.21 million, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, while the duty-free shopping amount decreased by 29.3% to 30.94 billion yuan [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has increased its market share in Hainan's duty-free sector by 2 percentage points in 2024, introducing over 150 new brands and enhancing the "first store economy" [3] - The company successfully secured operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free stores, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and the increase in international flights [3] - The company is actively pursuing the opening of city duty-free stores, with agreements signed in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 58.03 billion yuan, 63.55 billion yuan, and 68.73 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.50 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.18 yuan, 2.38 yuan, and 2.55 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 28.9, 26.4, and 24.7 [4][5]