3月财政数据点评：财政对消费的支持强于投资

Revenue Insights - In March, fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.6% in January-February, with the first quarter budget revenue progress at 27.4%, below the average of the past three years[2] - Tax revenue decline narrowed to -2.2% in March from -3.9% in January-February, with significant contributions from the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors[2] - Corporate income tax contributed 2.3 percentage points to revenue growth in March, reversing a decline of 2.8 percentage points in January-February[8] Expenditure Insights - Fiscal expenditure growth rebounded to 5.7% in March, up from 3.4% in January-February, with central government expenditure growing at 9.4% and local government expenditure at 5.2%[3] - Key social welfare expenditures (social security, health, education) contributed 3 percentage points to expenditure growth in March, while infrastructure spending negatively impacted growth by 0.2 percentage points[3] - In the first quarter, fiscal support for consumption outpaced investment, with social security and education expenditures growing by 7.9% and 7.8%, respectively[27] Broader Fiscal Trends - Government fund revenue fell by 11.7% in March, worsening from a 10.7% decline in January-February, primarily due to sluggish land sales, which dropped by 16.5%[4] - General fiscal revenue decline slightly narrowed to -1.7% in March from -2.9% in January-February, with future recovery largely dependent on the land market[4] - Government fund expenditure surged by 27.9% in March, significantly boosting general fiscal expenditure growth to 10.1%[4]