CGN POWER(003816) 招商证券·2025-04-24 08:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 20.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% [1] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to increased participation in market-based electricity trading, falling electricity prices, and R&D progress [6] - The company has seen growth in electricity generation from its subsidiaries, but overall profit has been impacted by the downward trend in electricity prices [6] - As of March 2025, the company manages 16 nuclear power units under construction or approved for construction, with a total installed capacity of 19.406 million kilowatts [6] - The company is expected to commission 1-2 units annually from 2025 to 2030, with the Huizhou Unit 1 expected to be operational this year [6] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 82.549 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to 85.880 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 89.903 billion yuan in 2026 and 96.724 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 10.042 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 10.658 billion yuan in 2026 and 11.918 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 18.0x in 2025, decreasing to 15.2x by 2027 [2] Performance Metrics - The company's operating profit for 2025 is estimated at 20.427 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 36.0% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 33.6% by 2027 [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 9.7% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 8.9% in 2027 [9]