Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-24 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price set at 132.4 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][13]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 291 billion CNY, driven by the effectiveness of national subsidy policies and a recovery in consumer spending [1]. - The company is leveraging its strong supply chain capabilities and internal efficiency improvements to enhance performance as macroeconomic conditions improve [1]. - The expansion of the self-operated business and the POP ecosystem is expected to continue, supported by national subsidy policies that stimulate consumer demand [2]. - The launch of JD's food delivery service is aimed at enhancing user experience and merchant offerings, with a focus on quality and ecosystem collaboration [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - JD Group's revenue is projected to be 12,510 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, followed by 13,312 billion CNY in 2026 and 14,095 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 6.4% and 5.9% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (Non-GAAP) is expected to be 519 billion CNY in 2025, 574 billion CNY in 2026, and 628 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its self-operated business barriers and expanding its POP ecosystem, with a focus on integrating various marketing resources to drive sales of new products [2]. - JD's food delivery service has already covered 126 cities and attracted over 300,000 quality restaurants, with daily order volumes exceeding one million [3]. Market Position - The report highlights JD Group's strong position in the non-essential consumer goods sector, benefiting from government policies and a robust supply chain [5].