Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-24 09:28Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the Sino-US tariff dispute is favorable to domestic corn prices; in the Northeast, the remaining grain is running out, and traders are reluctant to sell; in the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase of high - priced grain is limited, and the new - season planting area is expected to be stable but the sowing progress may be delayed due to weather; wheat drought indirectly boosts corn prices; short - term participation is recommended for the corn futures [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率, but limited downstream demand and high inventory; short - term participation is recommended for the corn starch futures [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2338 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 72 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 1359385 hands (up 30902 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 154292 hands (up 1674 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 60846 hands (up 17951 hands) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2701 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), the 7 - 9 monthly spread is - 64 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 225680 hands (up 5424 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 15207 hands (up 3288 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 5950 hands (unchanged) [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 479.5 cents/bushel (down 3.5 cents), the total position is 1723995 contracts (down 86141 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 234182 contracts (up 61300 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2279.61 yuan/ton (up 2.16 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2230 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CIF price of imported corn is 2145.9 yuan/ton (down 6.84 yuan), and the international freight of imported corn is 42 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged); the basis of the main contract is - 111 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.44 yuan/ton (up 2.88 yuan), the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch is 269 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 74 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 377.63 million tons, 126 million tons, 50 million tons, 294.92 million tons, and 26.8 million tons respectively (all unchanged); the predicted sowing areas are 33.55 million hectares, 22.3 million hectares, 6.4 million hectares, 44.74 million hectares, and 0.3 million hectares respectively (all unchanged) [2]. Industrial Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 164.5 million tons (up 11.4 million tons), and at northern ports is 530 million tons (down 25 million tons) [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 138.7 million tons (up 0.4 million tons) [2]. - Trade volume: The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons (unchanged), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons (down 930 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 2777.2 million tons (down 66.4 million tons), and the inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.54 days (up 0.35 days) [2]. - Corn consumption: The weekly consumption in deep - processing is 126.43 million tons (down 5.38 million tons) [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The weekly开机率 of alcohol enterprises is 53.85% (down 5.32%), and that of starch enterprises is 58.37% (up 4.43%) [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.52% (up 0.06%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.64% (up 0.05%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.72% (down 0.45%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.72% (down 0.46%) [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday, and analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from April 11 - 17, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 1.4 million tons [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption data and the开机率 and inventory data of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday [3].