瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250424

Report Summary of Shanghai Tin Industry on April 24, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: There are hopes of easing Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment. A series of domestic policies to expand domestic demand have been introduced, such as Guangdong and Shanghai planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption". [3] - Fundamental - face: Myanmar's tin mine复产 is advancing, with a meeting on April 23 clarifying the复产 matters earlier than expected, but full - scale normal mining will take about two months. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, so the shortage of ore supply is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The raw material structural contradiction in the smelting end is obvious, with low tin ore flow in Yunnan and restricted waste supply in Jiangxi, resulting in an operating rate lower than normal. Tin prices have fallen recently, improving downstream orders, and there is a high willingness to buy at low prices, but also a strong fear of high prices. Both domestic and foreign inventories have declined recently. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the range of 259,000 - 267,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 259,520 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract was down 130 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 31,314 US dollars/ton, up 186 US dollars. [3] - Positions and inventories: The main contract's open interest was 22,539 lots, down 2,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,087 lots, up 70 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,830 tons, down 50 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 9,571 tons (weekly), down 806 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 8,977 tons, unchanged. [3] b. Spot Market - Spot prices: The SMM 1 tin spot price was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 260,710 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. [3] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract was 1,480 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the LME tin (0 - 3) spread was - 217.01 US dollars/ton, up 4.99 US dollars. [3] c. Upstream Situation - Import and prices: The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] d. Industry Situation - Production and import: The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons. [3] e. Downstream Situation - Product prices and production: The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 169,790 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strip) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons. [3] f. Industry News - PMI data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5, March final value 48.6); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5, March final value 51.0); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, March final value 50.9). [3] - Debt forecast: The International Monetary Fund said that the expected tariff increase in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP. If the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds current forecasts, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027. [3] - Tin mine复产: On April 23, 2025, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Administration held a meeting on the resumption of production of the Manxiang mine, clarifying the process for obtaining mining, processing plant, and exploration licenses in the Manxiang mining area. [3]