瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. The industrial silicon contract has switched to the main contract 06. It is recommended to place short orders for the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 9000 yuan, with a stop - loss at 9100 yuan. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8875 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position is 182,653 lots, up 132 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 12,915 lots, up 877 lots; the warehouse receipt of GEE is 69,680 lots; the spread between the May - September contracts is - 125 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 775 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 612,000 tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 40,200 tons, down 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.58 US dollars/kg, down 0.35 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17,485.81 tons, a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 60.43%, down 1.06 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce announced the final anti - dumping and counter -vailing duty rates for crystalline photovoltaic cells (whether assembled into modules) from four Southeast Asian countries. Some Cambodian enterprises were imposed a counter -vailing duty of up to 3403.96%, and the "national entity" in Vietnam was imposed an anti - dumping duty of up to 271.28% [2] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the production cuts by leading manufacturers in the northwest are offset by the new production capacity in the southwest. With the approaching of the wet season, the cost pressure in the southwest will ease, and the overall output is expected to recover. On the demand side, the weakness is difficult to reverse in the short term. The photovoltaic industry is affected by the self - regulatory agreement, the silicone price has declined again, and the aluminum alloy industry has weak overseas demand [2]