Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-24 09:34Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy will increase the supply cost of nickel resources, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore will remain firm [3]. - Domestic smelters maintain normal production with rising output, and the production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is expected to be released faster with a significant rebound in output [3]. - Stainless - steel enterprises resume production after the holiday, but environmental protection maintenance affects output, which is unfavorable for nickel demand; the demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its small proportion has limited impact [3]. - Recently, the low nickel price has improved the downstream's willingness to purchase and stock up, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory, while overseas inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips with a light position [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 125,770 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,575 US dollars/ton, down 215 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 66,699 lots, up 34,148 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,704 lots, down 2,043 lots; LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, down 402 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 30,332 tons, down 262 tons; the total canceled warrants of LME nickel is 23,934 tons, up 4,188 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 2,4842 tons, down 494 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,180 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.32 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1.5352 million tons, up 389,100 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 6.6389 million tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 129.29 US dollars/ton, down 128.76 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,800 metal tons, down 500 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, up 661.27 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0133 million tons, up 104,600 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.9018 million tons, up 247,500 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 661,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April is 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April is 48.7 (expected 47.5, final value in March 48.6); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 49.7 (expected 50.5, final value in March 51.0); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 50.1 (expected 50.3, final value in March 50.9) [3]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the increase in tariffs in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP; if the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds the current forecast, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027 [3]. - There is hope for the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment; domestic cities have successively introduced a package of policies to expand domestic demand, and Guangdong, Shanghai and other places are planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" [3].