Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-24 09:29Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of polysilicon is nearing its end. It is recommended to place short positions on polysilicon 2506 around 40,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 40,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the trading volume of polysilicon and the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. - On the supply side, more than half of the enterprises in the industry are carrying out equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia regions, leading to a significant decline in supply. On the demand side, the downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among crystal - pulling enterprises. Downstream enterprises expect the future silicon material price to fall and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes. The polysilicon industry still has high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in manufacturers, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping due to weak downstream procurement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 39,375 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 59,000 lots, down 1,991 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,500 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding material is 34 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.58 US dollars/kg, down 0.35 US dollars/kg [2]. - Upstream Situation: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,875 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 612,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.27 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars/ton [2]. - Downstream Situation: The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 pieces, up 4,161,000 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.26 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece [2]. b. Industry News - As of April 23, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, re - feeding material, and N - type granular silicon are stable. The mainstream prices are 33 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, 42 yuan/kg, and 39 yuan/kg respectively [2]. - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for stabilizing employment, the economy, and promoting high - quality development. Although the LPR has not been lowered, below market expectations, no more stimulus policies will be introduced if the data does not deteriorate further [2].