华金期货螺纹周报-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial products showed mixed performance, with non - ferrous metals rebounding in a volatile manner and black metals under pressure. Steel prices oscillated at a low level. Steel mill production is expected to remain high, while demand is weak. Apparent demand is likely to reach a plateau and has little possibility of a continuous sharp rebound. Given the changing market environment, it is advisable to short螺纹 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Thread Supply - Mysteel's weekly production decreased by 0.11 tons to 229.11 tons, with electric furnace production down by 0.51 tons and blast furnace production up by 0.4 tons. The SAC旬 - level data shows that steel production is at a high level. Steel mill profits are considerable, and production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Thread Demand - Apparent demand has entered a stable period, with a slight decline this week. It is expected that demand will be difficult to continuously rebound in the first half of the year. After the holiday, it will gradually enter the off - season, and there is still room for demand to decline. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased this week. Mysteel's daily transactions fluctuated with prices, showing overall weakness [15]. 3.3 Thread Steel Inventory - The total inventory of thread steel continued to decline slightly this week. Hot - rolled coil inventory also continued to fall. Thread steel mill inventory decreased by 6.67 tons to about 193.73 tons, and social inventory decreased by 24.16 tons to 508.60 tons. The total inventory decreased by 30.83 tons to 702.33 tons. The SAC旬 - level data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [21]. 3.4 Thread Cost and Profit - This week, the estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,930 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,910 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,919 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2,990 yuan/ton of common square billets on April 23, steel mills have an average profit of 71 yuan/ton [25]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian increased by 30 yuan to 3,190 yuan, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an steel billets increased by 30 yuan to 2,990 yuan. Futures fluctuated widely, while the spot price rebounded slightly, and the basis remained stable [29]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore fluctuated widely, and the ratio of the main contract of thread to iron ore continued to weaken. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and there are few positive factors on the demand side. Black metals are expected to remain under pressure [36]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to March, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.9% and 24.4% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - February, and the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 5.1 percentage points [40].