化工日报-20250424

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (implies a slight upward trend) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (suggests a clear upward trend) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (indicates a clear upward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (shows a clear upward trend) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (represents a clear upward trend) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (demonstrates a clear upward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (signifies a clear upward trend) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (implies a clear upward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (suggests a clear upward trend) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (indicates a clear upward trend) [1] - Glass: ★☆★ (suggests a complex trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (implies a slight upward trend) [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and seasonal patterns. Some products are expected to have short - term price rebounds, while others will be in a state of shock adjustment [2][3][6] Summary by Product Methanol - Many methanol units are under maintenance, domestic capacity utilization is lowered. Before the May Day holiday, downstream purchasing demand increases in the inland market, but the apparent demand in the coastal area weakens. The inventory of production enterprises remains low, and the port inventory decreases significantly. Although the supply is expected to increase, the low inventory provides some support, and the short - term trend is mainly shock adjustment [2] Urea - A new round of urea demand is expected to start around May Day. Currently, the demand is seasonally weak, but as the agricultural demand peak approaches, the short - term market is expected to stabilize and then rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 1740 yuan/ton [3] Polyolefins - The futures of polyethylene and polypropylene are in shock consolidation. The downstream peak season of polyethylene is ending, but the supply pressure is expected to ease due to reduced imports and domestic unit maintenance. For polypropylene, more units are planned for maintenance in late April, and there is a risk of temporary shutdowns [4] Styrene - The styrene futures are oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. The supply is expected to decrease due to more unit shutdowns for maintenance, and the demand is also expected to decline. The price is in low - level shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the macro and cost factors [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA are in shock. Trade frictions affect the terminal demand. If the trade situation eases, there may be a price rebound. The short - fiber may rebound if the trade situation and domestic orders improve. The production of bottle chips continues to increase, and the industry profit is low [7][8] Chlor - alkali - PVC continues its sluggish trend with high upstream inventory and low - level operation of production. The domestic demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is weak, with high inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass is weak, with manufacturers accumulating inventory. The cost may rise, and the decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the support around 1100 yuan/ton. Soda ash closes up, with high inventory pressure. There are rumors of unit maintenance, and the price may rebound in the short - term but is in an oversupply situation in the long - term [10]