黑色金属日报-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Not clearly indicated [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ (A single star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for the price to rise/fall, but the operability on the market is not strong) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of the steel and related raw material markets is mainly volatile, affected by factors such as terminal demand, inventory levels, tariff policies, and macro - policies [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is under pressure and has declined. The apparent demand for thread has significantly dropped, the recovery lacks sustainability, production is basically flat, and inventory continues to decline. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized, and inventory has continued to decline. With the decline in steel profit per ton, the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The downstream industries are still weak overall, and the market lacks the momentum for continuous rebound, with short - term fluctuations and an overall volatile trend [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market has declined. The global shipment volume of iron ore fluctuates normally, with a seasonal growth expectation in the future. The domestic arrival volume is above the annual average, and port inventory may stabilize and rebound in the short term. Terminal demand has fallen from a high level, but there is still room for the resumption of hot metal production. The short - term price is greatly affected by macro factors, with an overall volatile trend, short - term price support, and medium - term pressure from the peak and decline of hot metal production [2] Coke - Coke prices have rebounded due to the wavering tariff policy. The daily output of hot metal has increased slightly, and the coking profit has increased slightly after the first price increase, with a small increase in daily output. The overall inventory of coke remains high, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The price is affected by inventory and tariff fluctuations, with many uncertainties and an expected volatile trend [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have rebounded due to the wavering tariff policy. The overall trading in the spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the transaction price has remained basically stable. Terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to decline, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain rigid - demand procurement. The customs clearance at the Mongolian coal import port has decreased significantly, and the price is in a stable and volatile state [4] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese has dropped to a new low this year due to the wavering tariff policy. The port inventory of manganese ore in the country has continued to rise, and the spot quotation and transaction price of manganese ore have continued to decline. The supply of silicomanganese has decreased slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon has declined slightly due to the easing expectation of tariff policies. The output of hot metal has increased slightly, the export demand has generally continued to decline month - on - month, and the production of magnesium metal has decreased. The overall demand has declined marginally. The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased, the market trading level is average, and the inventory has increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6]