股指期货日报：涨跌不一-20250424

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view and recommends cautious long - positions [6][7] 2. Core View - The attitude of US tariff policy is inconsistent, but the sensitivity of the A - share market to tariff policy has weakened. Without a substantial policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. The core of market trading focuses more on domestic policy expectations [6] - Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of April. If substantial favorable policies are released, the index is expected to rise [6] - Market sentiment is not overly optimistic. The historical quantile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is below 5%. The trading volume of the two markets has declined again, and market sentiment is cautious. Before the implementation of policy benefits, a cautiously optimistic view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, all other indices closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1206.95 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM fell with reduced volume [4] Important Information - Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China will fight if provoked and is open to talks. The US Treasury Secretary caused fluctuations in the US stock market, mentioning "significant" trade agreement opportunities and also stating that the US has not proposed tariff reduction [5] Strategy Recommendation - Recommend cautious long - positions [7] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change | Volume | Volume MoM | Open Interest | Open Interest MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.07% | 8.3579 | - 0.055 | 246,898 | - 890 | | IH | 0.32% | 4.1283 | 0.0782 | 80,085 | - 610 | | IC | - 0.31% | 7.5303 | - 1.1813 | 203,548 | - 4,910 | | IM | - 0.90% | 20.9041 | - 1.6265 | 316,470 | - 2,832 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.03 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | - 0.58 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.42 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 11,090.19 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 1206.95 | [9]