生猪期货大跌的背后

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated with a bearish outlook, suggesting a negative view on the market [16] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of live hog futures on April 24 is reasonable considering the ample supply, decreasing industry costs, and the profit space in the futures market. The market should be viewed with a bearish mindset, and attention should be paid to the release of supply pressure and the decline range of spot prices [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Performance of Live Hog Futures - On April 24, live hog futures opened and then quickly declined. The main 2509 contract showed a large negative candlestick with a long lower shadow, and the 2511 contract also dropped significantly, with an intraday low of 13,685 yuan/ton, approaching the previous lows [2] - Since April, live hog futures first had an upward trend. One reason was the increase in the price of soybean meal, a feed raw material, due to the Sino - US tariff conflict in early April, which drove up the futures price. Another reason was the impact of hog holding for weight gain and secondary fattening, which made the spot price oscillate strongly and the futures price repair the basis upward [2] 3.2 Supply - Side Indicators 3.2.1 Sow Inventory - Official data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction continued to rise until the end of December last year, indicating that the theoretical hog slaughter volume will be on an upward trend until the end of October this year. Steel Union data shows that the sow inventory recovered last year and remained relatively stable in the first quarter of this year [6] 3.2.2 Number of New - born Piglets - Since last year, the number of new - born piglets has generally been on the rise. Although it declined in the fourth quarter of last year, it has returned to an upward trend since the first quarter of this year. In March this year, it reached a level close to the high in 2023. The piglets born in the first quarter correspond to the hog slaughter from July to September, so the 9 - month contract faces greater slaughter pressure [9] - The hog slaughter volume in the second quarter may be affected by the decline in the number of new - born piglets in the fourth quarter of last year, but the weight gain and supply shift caused by hog holding and secondary fattening from February to April this year can supplement the supply in the second quarter [9] 3.3 Impact of Hog Holding and Secondary Fattening - The previous hog holding for weight gain has led to a continuous increase in the industry's average weight, and the current average weight has reached the second - highest level in the past five years. The core reason for continuous hog holding and secondary fattening after the Spring Festival this year is the positive price difference between fat and standard hogs, which is an opportunistic behavior to earn high premiums for large hogs [11] - The price difference between fat and standard hogs has been repaired from the extreme high in February to near zero, and it is expected that the momentum for hog holding and secondary fattening will weaken, and the slaughter rhythm will accelerate [11] 3.4 Cost and Profit Situation - The industry's breeding cost is still decreasing. Taking Muyuan Co., Ltd., a leading self - breeding and self - raising enterprise, as an example, the full cost of hog breeding continued to decline, reaching 12.5 yuan/kg in March 2025. According to listed company announcements, the current industry average cost is about 12 - 13 yuan/kg [14] - Since last year, the profit from piglet sales has been positive, which is consistent with the continuous recovery of sow production capacity and is significantly different from the situation in 2023 when continuous losses in piglet sales led to a reduction in sow production capacity and a potential supply gap in 2024 [15]