软商品日报-20250424

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] Core Views - The markets of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade policies, and weather conditions. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, mainly including waiting and seeing, holding short - term positions, and maintaining a bearish view [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable domestic cotton spot trading and firm basis. Cotton yarn spinning enterprises sold in small orders, and prices were stable to weak. China imported 7.37 million tons of cotton in March, a year - on - year decrease of 32.33 million tons. Clothing sales data showed good domestic demand but large external demand challenges. The focus is on Sino - US trade relations. Trump's statement on tariff cuts may drive prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated overnight. Brazil's 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season has started. Due to less rainfall in the first quarter, the yield per unit may decline, but the high sugar - alcohol price ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, so sugar production is uncertain. Falling oil prices are negative for US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is strong, with the market focusing on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. With the approaching of May Day, purchasing enthusiasm was high, and prices in some areas increased. The flower buds this year are large, and the impact of the low - temperature on April 12 is not significant, but the risk of poor fruit - setting exists. The market is focused on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU fluctuated, NR fell, and BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices continued to fall, butadiene rubber prices rose slightly, and butadiene import prices fell. Global natural rubber supply is increasing, and some domestic butadiene rubber plants' operating rates have changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined, and inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased slightly, and butadiene social inventory decreased while upstream inventory increased. With the approaching of May Day, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to wait and see for RU&NR, expect a rebound for BR, and hold cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices were stable in some areas and fell in others. As of April 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.106 billion tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase. Import inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term trend is affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable. New Zealand's log shipments are entering the off - season, but the impact on arrival volume will take time. Downstream demand is good recently but the peak season is ending. Inventory pressure still exists. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view [8]