洽洽食品（002557）：成本波动压制Q1毛利，关注未来改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 gross profit due to cost fluctuations, and future improvements are to be monitored [1][7] - The company aims to stabilize revenue performance through organizational adjustments and channel expansions [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 71.31 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.79%. Q1 2025 revenue is 15.71 billion, showing a decline of 13.76% year-on-year [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 8.49 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.82%. Q1 2025 net profit is 0.77 billion, down 67.88% year-on-year [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.97 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 96.31% for 2024 [7] - The gross margin for 2024 is 28.78%, up 2.03 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin is 19.47%, down 10.96 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products was 43.82 billion, 19.24 billion, and 7.73 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [7] - The decline in Q1 2025 revenue is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, with expected double-digit declines in sunflower seed revenue and a larger decline in nuts [7] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to leverage its brand and channel advantages to increase market share in the sunflower seed business, while the nut business is anticipated to grow rapidly due to supply chain and channel strengths [7] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, supported by brand strength and channel expansion [7]