AHB(SH:688639) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-24 13:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [4][11]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in the face of short-term fluctuations, with strong potential for growth driven by new product releases, particularly PDO [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a leader in synthetic biology, with its core business in alanine and valine anaerobic processes leading the industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.37%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 57.80% to 190 million yuan [1][5]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 639 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.21%. The net profit for this quarter was 20 million yuan, down 84.80% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 687 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 37.20%, while net profit decreased by 40.98% to 51 million yuan [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the amino acids segment generated revenue of 1.509 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.01%. The vitamin segment saw a decline of 5.04% to 207 million yuan, while other products surged by 318.70% to 89 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margins for these segments were 30.00%, 20.77%, and 28.58%, respectively, with notable declines in margins due to increased operational costs and competitive pricing pressures [2]. Product and Market Outlook - Valine prices showed signs of recovery in 2025 after a significant decline in 2024, with an average price of 14,653 yuan per ton, a 36.66% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The company has made key breakthroughs in new products such as 1,3-propanediol (PDO), which is expected to enhance its product portfolio and market reach [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 301 million yuan, 406 million yuan, and 545 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.20 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 2.18 yuan [4][5]. - The expected PE ratios for these years are 23, 17, and 13, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][5].