棉花：美棉受宏观局势缓和影响上涨，郑棉平收

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures closed flat today, fluctuating around the 13,000 yuan/ton mark. The market sentiment is gradually easing, but trading volume has sharply decreased, and the market lacks upward momentum. The subsequent focus should be on tariff policies. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to the potential easing of tariff policies. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The subsequent marginal impacts of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main 2509 contract closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the market lacked upward drivers. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to potential tariff policy easing [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In Q1, port cargo throughput reached 42.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with domestic and foreign trade increasing by 4.1% and 1.4% respectively. Container throughput reached 83.03 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with domestic and foreign trade routes increasing by 3.6% and 11.5% respectively [3]. - In Kuqa City, 1,800+ cotton planters are operating efficiently, with 1.595 million mu of cotton sown, accounting for 88.61% of the planned area [4]. - In early April 2025, the yarn sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises was 98.1%, a month-on-month increase of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 8.3 percentage points. The yarn inventory was 29.1 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.5 days. The cloth sales-to-production ratio was 96.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The cloth inventory was 36.8 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.3 days [4]. - As of April 21, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in the 2024/25 season was 6.792731 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.78%. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.428573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [5]. - On April 23, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was 75.1 cents/pound, a 0.35% decrease from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, Trump acknowledged that US tariffs on Chinese imports are too high and expects a significant reduction in tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary also indicated that the China-US tariff war will soon cool down. Domestically, the market driving logic is shifting from "policy expectation-driven" to "reality verification-driven" [13]. - Investors should focus on three key points: the USDA planting area report in late May, the Fed's interest rate decision in mid-June, and the semi-annual reports of Chinese textile enterprises in early July, which may form new price drivers [13]. - Technically, the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract needs to effectively stand above 13,200 yuan/ton to confirm a breakthrough, with strong support at 12,600 yuan/ton. Arbitrage strategies can focus on the opportunity for the repair of the cotton yarn processing fee, which is currently at the 10th percentile of historical levels and has the potential to return to the mean [13]. - The cotton price may remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes, the recovery of downstream orders, extreme weather in major production areas, and macro - policy trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [13].