豆粕生猪：通关持续扰动，豆粕再创新高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic soybean meal is tight in the short - term, with high spot prices, but the supply pressure will appear in the medium - term as the import volume increases and the oil mill's operating rate recovers. The price of soybean meal futures may be under pressure when the operating rate recovers and the downstream buying sentiment cools down. [5][17] - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the future, with the number of newborn piglets reaching a high level and the slaughter weight rising. The future rebound space of the live pig futures market is limited, and the price will be under pressure in the medium - term. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal主力 2509 contract rose 0.36% to 3059 yuan/ton. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotations increased by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with Tianjin at 4300 yuan/ton (up 220 yuan/ton), Jiangsu at 3950 yuan/ton (up 250 yuan/ton), and Guangdong at 3930 yuan/ton (up 310 yuan/ton). [2] - DCE live pig主力 2509 contract fell 0.83% to 14135 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.89 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg. [2] - Overnight CBOT US soybean主力 contract rose 0.5% to 1052 cents/bushel. [2] 2. Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest, precipitation is expected to be active on weekends, and the wet conditions in the south may delay sowing. From last Friday to this Monday, there were local sporadic showers in both the west and the east. The temperature conditions varied in different periods and regions. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows local sporadic showers and temperatures close to or higher than normal from Tuesday to Saturday. The dry weather at the beginning of last week promoted planting and field operations, but more rainfall systems are expected to appear over the weekend and this week. [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The inventory reconstruction of soybeans takes time, and the short - term supply shortage situation remains. The pre - May Day stocking supports the price, but the import volume of soybeans in May - June is expected to be 23 million tons, and the oil mill's operating rate will recover to over 50%, along with the release of state - reserve soybeans, which will bring supply pressure and may lead to price decline. [5] - On April 23, the national major oil mills' soybean meal trading volume was 1.805 million tons, a decrease of 2.474 million tons compared with the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 42.4%, an increase of 3.11% compared with the previous day. [5] - On April 24, the import cost of US soybeans was 3869 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the cost after tariff was 7316 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3664 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3690 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan). [5] - On April 24, the daily slaughter volume of key live pig breeding enterprises increased by 1.23%, and the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.92%. [5][6] - As of April 17, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year were between 200,000 - 600,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 200,000 tons; the expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year were between 150,000 - 350,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 50,000 tons. [6] - Due to the heavy rain in March and early April, the soybean harvesting rate was lower than the five - year average, and the output was at risk. The exchange expected the soybean output to be 48.6 million tons. The slow - down of soybean sales was also affected by the harvest delay. As of April 16, farmers had sold 23.4% of the 2024/25 crops, the slowest rate in ten years. [6] - In March, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3.228968 million tons, soybean oil output was 644,820 tons, and soybean meal output was 2.387321 million tons. [6] - Brazil's expected soybean export volume in April was 14.3 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons compared with last week's forecast, and the expected soybean meal export volume remained at 2.4 million tons. [7] - In mid - April 2025, compared with early April, among 50 important production materials, 10 products' prices rose, 32 decreased, and 8 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (outer ternary) was 14.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg (1.4%). [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the price of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the price of live pigs in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, China's soybean inventory, and China's soybean meal inventory. [10][12][13][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, US soybean futures rose due to the expected easing of global trade tensions. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased by an average of 200 yuan/ton per day, with a serious vehicle - pressing situation in oil mills and a tight supply. The customs clearance problem will continue, but a large amount of soybeans will arrive in the second quarter, and the oil mill's operating rate is gradually recovering. There is a risk of chasing high prices in the short - term. [17] - For live pigs, the number of breeding sows has recovered, and the future theoretical slaughter volume of live pigs will increase. The number of newborn piglets in March reached a high level, and the slaughter weight has been rising. The future rebound space of the live pig futures market is limited, and the price will be under pressure in the medium - term. [18]