生猪：关注远端跨期矛盾

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: April 25, 2025 [1] - Report Theme: Focus on the inter - term contradiction in the distant end of the live hog market [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 14,920 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,590 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,840 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures Prices - LH2505: 14,075 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [3] - LH2507: 13,495 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton [3] - LH2509: 14,135 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 230 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - LH2505 trading volume: 3,281 lots, an increase of 620 lots from the previous day; open interest: 4,964 lots, a decrease of 1,150 lots from the previous day [3] - LH2507 trading volume: 13,493 lots, an increase of 6,996 lots from the previous day; open interest: 33,814 lots, an increase of 232 lots from the previous day [3] - LH2509 trading volume: 72,326 lots, an increase of 31,917 lots from the previous day; open interest: 78,051 lots, a decrease of 1,840 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - LH2505 basis: 845 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3] - LH2507 basis: 1,425 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton [3] - LH2509 basis: 785 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 180 yuan/ton [3] - LH5 - 7 spread: 580 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 245 yuan/ton [3] - LH7 - 9 spread: - 640 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 135 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of values from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4] Group 4: Market Logic - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the spot price stopped falling and the second - fattening started. The state reserve rotation will support the downstream. Group farms are actively selling piglets without the driving force of actively selling fattening hogs. The spot price in April still has support. The near - month contracts trade based on the logic of basis convergence. Pay attention to whether the far - month contracts trade based on the logic of upward shift of the price center [5] - Before the May Day holiday, both supply and demand increase. The spot price will mainly fluctuate and adjust, lacking driving forces. Wait for the direction of the spot price after the holiday and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [5] - In the short term, the support level of the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]