能源化工日报-20250425

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The energy and chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand or cost factors [2][3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On April 24, the PVC主力09合约 closed at 4968 yuan/ton (-38), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions. Supply has new investment plans and high inventory, resulting in a bearish outlook. Recently, there has been some improvement in exports and domestic demand, but the market is mainly macro - driven. The price is in a weak consolidation phase, and it may be supported by strong domestic stimulus policies or further pressured by trade frictions and economic deterioration [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 24, the caustic soda主力SH09合约 closed at 2472 yuan/ton (-24). The price in the Shandong market decreased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased, but it is still at a high level. The market is supported by new Indonesian investments and exports, but overall, supply is sufficient and demand growth is limited, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to watch include delivery, inventory, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On April 24, rubber showed a volatile trend. Thailand is about to start rubber tapping. The market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Tire production capacity utilization decreased, and rubber inventory in China showed a complex trend. The price of rubber raw materials varies in different regions. The market is still considered weak, and future demand will be affected by tariffs [4][5]. Urea - The urea主力合约 fell 0.79% to 1758 yuan/ton. Supply is stable with high daily production. Demand from compound fertilizers is in a seasonal inventory - building phase, while industrial demand is rising. The inventory of urea enterprises has changed from destocking to stocking. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1750 - 1850 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include compound fertilizer production and export policies [6]. Methanol - The methanol主力合约 rose 0.62% to 2289 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and the port arrival volume is expected to increase. Demand from the olefin industry decreased slightly, and traditional demand has limited support. Inventory in both enterprises and ports increased. The 09 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include the macro - environment and production device maintenance [7][8]. Plastic - On April 24, the plastic主力合约 fell 0.90% to 7149 yuan/ton. Supply is under pressure due to expected new capacity in the second quarter. Downstream demand from the agricultural film industry declined significantly, while packaging film demand is okay and pipe demand is average. Inventory is neutral, and the 2509 contract is expected to have a short - term low - level oscillation, with a cautious bearish view. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff negotiations [9].