宝城期货动力煤早报-20250425

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal is expected to remain weak in the near term due to the continuation of high supply and high inventory, along with the seasonal decline in thermal coal demand [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Core Logic: Since April, the decline of domestic coal prices has slowed down, but the coal market atmosphere is not about to reverse. With the arrival of the off - season, bearish factors are accumulating. On the supply side, in March 2025, China's raw coal output reached 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. Although coal prices have been falling, domestic coal production remains at a high level. In terms of imports, in March, China imported 38.733 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%, but the import volume is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. From April 1st to 10th, the total number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port was 8168, compared with 7697 in the same period last year, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal imported by rail is considerable. On the demand side, with the end of the heating season in the north, the non - power industry cannot make up for the seasonal decline in thermal coal demand, and the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal is relatively loose, suppressing the market atmosphere. In addition, as May and June approach, the hydropower generation will improve, which may further dilute the demand for thermal coal. In terms of inventory, as of April 17th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.059 million tons, with a significant weekly inventory increase of 2.1443 million tons, 9.86 million tons higher than the same period last year. The spring inspection of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway did not achieve effective inventory reduction at the northern ports [4]. - Reference View: The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is to oscillate [4].