特朗普将为俄乌谈判设定最后期限

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that oil prices will oscillate to form a bottom in the short term and recommends a short - position allocation in the medium term [3]. 2. Core View - Due to the stalemate in Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the delay in achieving a cease - fire, Trump's patience for ending the conflict is being consumed. Putin's recent statement about stopping the invasion on the current front represents a major concession, but the short - term outcome of a cease - fire agreement remains highly uncertain. If the US withdraws from mediating the conflict and stops military aid to Ukraine, the situation will favor Russia. The direction of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations may lead to two different results for oil prices: a cease - fire agreement may lead to relaxed US sanctions on Russia, which is bearish for oil prices; if no agreement is reached, the US may increase sanctions on Russia, which is bullish for oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Parts Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 52 cents to $62.79 per barrel, a 0.84% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose 43 cents to $66.55 per barrel, a 0.65% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.00% at 495 yuan per barrel [1]. - The US White House is discussing whether to lift sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and other potential Russian assets in Europe as part of the discussion to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Restarting Nord Stream 2 may bring windfall profits to Moscow, but it depends on the EU's agreement to buy Russian gas through the pipeline again, which seems unlikely. Lifting sanctions would be a "diplomatic coup" for Russia and a major concession from Trump [1]. - Four new Russian companies have sought approval from India to provide insurance for crude oil tankers docked at Indian ports. The Indian Shipping Ministry is considering applications from Sberbank Insurance, Balance Insurance, Ugoria Insurance, and ASTK Insurance. New companies joining the insurance list will further promote Russia's crude oil transportation to India. Since the outbreak of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, India has been a major buyer of discounted Russian crude oil [1]. - As of the week ending April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high; middle distillates inventory decreased by 1.138 million barrels to 8.576 million barrels, a 9 - month low; light distillates inventory rose by 1.128 million barrels to 15.62 million barrels, a two - week high [1]. - On the 24th, Trump made a series of remarks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict. He pointed out that both Ukraine and Russia are willing to achieve peace and must join the negotiations. He also set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue. After the deadline, the US attitude will change. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and said he would answer the question of sanctions on Russia within a week. If no agreement is reached to end the conflict, "things will happen" and the US will cooperate with Ukraine to the best of its ability [1]. Risk - Downside risks include significant production increases by OPEC and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].