Group 1 - The report discusses the rapid increase in gold prices following unexpected tariff policies on April 2, 2025, with London gold briefly surpassing $3,500 per ounce before retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating tariff attitudes from Trump [5][8] - The report emphasizes the strategic recommendation to gradually overweight gold in global asset allocation, highlighting its potential for a trend-driven upward trajectory [5][8] - The analysis indicates that gold's recent price surge is characterized by increased volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a significant decline in the US dollar index [5][11][24] Group 2 - The report forecasts a favorable allocation window for gold prices after short-term adjustments, with a projected price range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce for 2025 [26][50] - It identifies key factors influencing gold prices, including global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [48][49] - The report highlights the ongoing trend of global central banks increasing gold purchases, particularly in the context of declining dollar credibility [36][37]
全球资产配置方法论黄金框架性报告之四：定量测算金价中枢：风险还是机遇？
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-25 02:36