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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250425
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-04-25 02:52
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. The market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and macro - economic factors. Some metals show short - term fluctuations and long - term trends, with both upward and downward risks [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.92% to $9455/ton, and SHFE copper main contract reached 77770 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1825 to 203425 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.3 million tons. - Market: Domestic copper spot import had a small loss, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. Short - term copper prices may be volatile, and the impact of US tariffs on market sentiment should be noted [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.68% to $2459/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract reached 19955 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 42.4 million tons, and domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 1.5 to 65.8 million tons. - Market: The short - term trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum prices are supported by strong demand in the peak season, and there is an opportunity for the inter - month spread to widen [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 16930 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1938/ton. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.83 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 27.71 million tons. - Market: Lead supply is generally loose, demand is stable, and short - term lead prices show a strong - side shock [7]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.52% to 22536 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2666/ton. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.36 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 8.58 million tons. - Market: The medium - term bearish scenario remains. Zinc supply is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates [8]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract reached 259520 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts were 8977 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 20 to 2810 tons. - Market: Mine supply is gradually recovering, which suppresses tin prices, but domestic demand is strong, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Nickel - Price: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125880 yuan/ton, up 0.58%, and LME nickel closed at $15880/ton, up 1.96%. - Market: The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. Stainless steel mills' raw material procurement is light, and nickel prices are expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: MMLC was reported at 69,028 yuan, and LC2507 contract closed at 68,300 yuan, down 0.99%. - Inventory: Domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.8%, and inventory increment narrowed to 0.2%. - Market: High inventory and approaching off - season make it difficult to reduce inventory. Prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [13]. Alumina - Price: Alumina index rose 0.7% to 2864 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts were 28.04 million tons, down 0.21 million tons. - Market: The supply surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15][16]. Stainless Steel - Price: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12780 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. - Inventory: Futures inventory was 170965 tons, down 2205, and social inventory decreased by 0.78%. - Market: Raw material prices are stable, and the price is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [18].