花旗：How Not To Win A Trade War-中国在触底之前不会达成协议

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The current trade dynamics between the US and China are characterized by high tariffs and significant trade deficits, making it sub-optimal for either side to reach a trade deal at this time [2][12][21] - The US is currently benefiting from tariffs, with an estimated net gain of $293 billion despite a 30$7 billion due to compensatory tariffs on US exports [6][7] - A scenario without a trade deal is expected to lead to a 50% drop in bilateral trade, with the US gaining $242 billion and China losing$127 billion [8][11] - The report suggests that both countries are unlikely to reach an agreement until bilateral trade losses reach a significant threshold, specifically a drop of at least 65% [32][35] Summary by Sections Trade Dynamics - The US has imposed a 145% tariff on most Chinese goods, with exceptions for certain electronics, leading to a complex trade environment [6][7] - The US aims to eliminate its trade deficit with China, which is a primary objective in the ongoing trade war [11][12] Game Theory Analysis - The report employs Game Theory to analyze the trade negotiations, indicating that both sides currently find it optimal to maintain the status quo rather than reach a deal [18][21] - The Nash equilibrium suggests that neither party will benefit from a trade agreement until significant trade losses are realized [25][29] Future Outlook - A potential trade deal may only emerge after bilateral trade has significantly declined, with both sides needing to feel the economic impact before negotiations can begin [34][35] - The report concludes that a Sino-US trade deal is unlikely in the near term, as both parties are currently positioned to avoid making concessions [21][29]