高盛：中国数据洞察-为何头条热议的基础设施投资在实际中感觉遇冷？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest increase in infrastructure investment growth, projecting an increase of 8.5% year-on-year in 2025, compared to 7.2% in 2024 [3][45]. Core Insights - Despite a solid annualized growth rate of around 7% in official infrastructure investment, domestic demand for steel and cement has remained sluggish, primarily due to the unprecedented downturn in the property sector [3][4]. - The shift in infrastructure investment priorities towards utilities and new infrastructure has reduced the marginal impact on steel and cement demand, although this impact appears minor for the post-Covid years [3][10]. - Concerns regarding the quality of fixed asset investment (FAI) data have resurfaced, with discrepancies noted between implied cement demand and official output data [3][36]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment has increased by 40% in nominal terms and 27% in real terms compared to 2021, while steel and cement outputs have decreased by 2% and 17% respectively [5][11]. - The prolonged downtrend in property construction has led to a significant divergence between infrastructure and property investment growth since 2022 [11][19]. Structural Factors - The report identifies the property downturn as a major factor offsetting the boost from infrastructure stimulus to steel and cement demand [10][17]. - The marginal impact of infrastructure investment on commodity demand is estimated to be lower than that of property investment, with RMB 100 in property investment boosting ferrous metals value-added by RMB 4.5, compared to RMB 3.3 from infrastructure investment [17][20]. Future Projections - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to increase modestly in 2025, while property investment is projected to remain depressed at -10.0% year-on-year [45]. - A meaningful rise in commodity demand may require a recovery in property construction, which appears unlikely in the near term [45].