华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250425

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price center shifting downwards and showing a weak trend [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continuously shift down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum and Related Products - This week, some alumina plants completed their maintenance and resumed production, while new maintenance and production - cut news emerged. The national alumina operating capacity increased slightly week - on - week, reaching 83.62 million tons/year as of Thursday, a 740,000 - ton/year increase from the previous week. Alumina spot prices stopped falling, and there was a slight rebound in the northern region. Short - term prices are expected to move in a sideways pattern [3]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% compared with last week. Each sector showed a differentiated pattern: the primary alloy operating rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 55.4%, but is expected to decline slightly; the aluminum plate and strip maintained at 68.0% but提货 was suppressed by the rising aluminum price; the aluminum cable remained stable at 63.6%, with risks from photovoltaic policies; the aluminum profile showed a structural recovery to 59.5% [3]. - As of April 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 673,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to around 620,000 - 650,000 tons by the end of April [3]. - Macro - sentiment has slightly improved. In the later stage of the peak season, downstream inventory is being reduced. Aluminum prices are oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to event - induced fluctuations [4].