宁证期货今日早评-20250425

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The economic downward pressure still supports gold, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level oscillation. [2] - Crude oil has short - term inventory pressure, and the market will face multiple factors in the later stage. Short - term trading is recommended. [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate mainly due to minor fundamental contradictions and positive macro - sentiment. [5] - Coke is expected to move sideways in the short term as the market sentiment is weak and the cost support is decreasing. [5] - Steel prices may fluctuate up and down repeatedly due to uncertain demand, and the current situation should be treated with an oscillating view. [6] - The price of live pigs is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium - long term, and short - term 09 contracts can wait for a callback to go long. [6] - Palm oil prices will maintain an oscillating pattern, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. [7] - Silver lacks the power to rise further, and there is unlikely to be a trending market before the Fed cuts interest rates. [8] - The price of soybeans is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. [8] - The bond market will have increased fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect. [9] - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term. [9] - The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10] - The 09 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term. [12] - PTA should be traded short - term as it follows crude oil and the demand side is under pressure. [12] - Natural rubber is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend. [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - Fed officials warned of economic downward risks, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. Gold has support from economic pressure, and its medium - term trend is slightly bullish with high - level oscillation. [2] Crude Oil - The short - term inventory pressure is not significant. The market will be affected by factors such as tariffs, US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, and OPEC+ production in the later stage. Short - term trading is recommended. [3] Iron Ore - The supply is at a neutral level, and the demand has short - term support. The fundamentals have minor contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate mainly due to positive macro - sentiment. [5] Coke - The coke market price is stable. The profit of coke enterprises is low, and the cost support is decreasing. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. [5] Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decline, but the demand sustainability is questionable. Steel prices may fluctuate up and down repeatedly, and an oscillating view is recommended. [6] Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is oscillating narrowly. The terminal demand is average, but the breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract after a callback in the short term and is slightly bullish in the medium - long term. [6] Palm Oil - The external market is rising, and the purchase volume is increasing, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. It is recommended to high - sell and low - buy. [7] Silver - US economic data shows some resilience, but the global economic downward pressure is increasing. Silver lacks upward power, and there is no trending market before the Fed cuts interest rates. [8] Soybeans - The market has an environment where prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The price of domestic soybeans is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. [8] Treasury Bonds - The central bank increases market liquidity, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The bond market supply increases, and its fluctuations intensify. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw. [9] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. [9] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [10] Methanol - The cost is stable, the supply is high, and the demand is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] PTA - The PTA production and polyester industry's start - up rate are increasing, but the demand side is under pressure. It should be traded short - term. [12] Natural Rubber - The supply pressure will become obvious in the later stage, the market support is weak, and it is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend. [13]