山金期货原油日报-20250425

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up due to the Fed's likely maintenance of interest rates in May and over 50% probability of a rate cut in June, as well as Trump's tariff policy and remarks about not removing Powell from office. However, the actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in the growth of the US debt scale could affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are moving towards relaxation but still require sensitivity to emergencies [2]. - Overnight oil prices fluctuated with a rise and then a fall. The upward momentum from the warming external market sentiment was suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The current oil prices may not fully reflect OPEC+ production increase, and there are expectations for OPEC+ to continue managing supply to support prices. But there are concerns about OPEC+'s internal coordination and output control, and the short - term absence of geopolitical drivers has pressured oil prices [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production cut bottom in a sharp decline and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, the weekly chart of US oil shows a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and facing pressure. If the pressure around $65 per barrel for US oil is effective, it is difficult for the oil price to return to the production cut bottom range. The short - term is a rebound encountering resistance, and whether it turns into a phased decline remains to be seen. The short - term pressure has moved down to around $63.3 per barrel for US oil, and the potential support is around $61 per barrel for US oil. The trading strategy is to protect floating profits for short - term short positions and put options, and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil Futures: On April 24, Sc was at 493.40 yuan/barrel, down 10.40 (-2.06%) from the previous day and up 10.70 (2.22%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.77/barrel, up $0.49 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $1.68 (-2.61%) from the previous week; Brent was at $66.50/barrel, up $0.36 (0.54%) from the previous day and down $1.35 (-1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.26/barrel, with a weekly increase of $0.76 (1.09%); Brent DTD was at $66.95/barrel, down $1.33 (-1.95%) from the previous week; Oman was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; Dubai was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; ESPO was at $63.66/barrel, up $1.34 (2.15%) from the previous week [2]. - Inventory Data: Sc warehouse receipts totaled 4644000 barrels, a weekly increase of 907000 barrels (24.27%); the US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.47 million barrels (0.12%) [2]. - CFTC Positions: Non - commercial net positions were 146400 contracts, up 6800 contracts (4.85%); commercial net positions were - 153700 contracts, down 5200 contracts (3.47%); non - report net positions were 7300 contracts, down 1600 contracts (-18.06%) [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - Trump set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue, stating that the US attitude will change after the deadline, but Russia's Peskov said Trump never specified a date and setting a deadline for a cease - fire is inappropriate. Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and was non - committal about sanctions [3]. - Putin urged Russian economic officials to seize opportunities from trade wars to strengthen the economy, as Russia's trade with the US and the EU has declined due to sanctions but is not affected by Trump's tariffs [4]. - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff plans for Chinese goods, including reducing the tariff rate to about 50% - 65% or implementing a "graded plan". However, the White House said Trump's stance on China tariffs has not softened [4]. - US Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that Trump's trade war could lead to rising unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July, but if tariffs return to a high level, companies may lay off workers, and he would support rate cuts in case of a sharp rise in unemployment [5]. - Russia launched a large - scale air strike on Ukraine, causing casualties. Trump criticized Russia, and Russia put forward new cease - fire conditions, requiring Kiev to withdraw troops from four regions [5]. - The US Middle East envoy is expected to visit Russia to discuss the Ukraine issue, and representatives from the UK, France, Germany, the US, and Ukraine held talks in London, claiming "significant progress" [6].