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碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周减少-20250425
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-04-25 03:26

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected loose supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April and the weakening price trend, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Price - On April 24, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract was 104,384 lots, a decrease of 111,782 lots from the previous day, and the open interest increased by 6,068 lots. The inventory decreased by 180 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium minerals (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) remained unchanged compared to the previous day, while the average prices of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic, 99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of some lithium compounds (lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate) decreased, while the average prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly [1] Industry News and Company Dynamics - In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology upgraded the "no fire, no explosion" requirement for electric vehicle power batteries from a recommended standard to a mandatory one [2] - The 20,000 - ton iron phosphate lithium hydroxide material project of Baiyin Times Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. was officially put into production in Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The total planned production capacity of the project is 100,000 tons, to be built in three phases [2] - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. decided to terminate the "Battery - grade Lithium Carbonate Production and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Lithium - ion Batteries Project" with a planned investment of no more than 2 billion yuan, and has invested 97 million yuan in the project [2] - Linyi Bucha Weimang Environmental Protection New Material Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries annually [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project at Greenbushes may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium ore. The monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacity will be put into operation [3][5] - Demand side: The downstream demand for lithium products is gradually recovering. The production and inventory of some products (such as lithium iron phosphate) may increase, while the export volume of some products (such as lithium hydroxide) may decrease [3][5]