Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices have stabilized and rebounded. Fed officials have signaled potential rate cuts in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction. Amid trade war disturbances, issues such as financial market turmoil, increased recession risks, de - dollarization, and US debt have become more prominent, causing gold prices to continuously reach new historical highs. Given the US debt pressure and the clear stagflation situation this year, gold remains strong overall but faces short - term adjustment pressure due to Trump's softened attitude and overbought conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2506 and沪金2512 are 796.46 and 801.52 respectively, with daily increases of 4.26 and 4.32, and daily increase rates of 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2506 and沪银2512 are 8320.00 and 8383.00 respectively, with daily increases of 24.00 and 20.00, and daily increase rates of 0.29% and 0.24% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of沪金2506 is 173030, and the trading volume is 1125865; the open interest of沪金2512 is 48336, and the trading volume is 47246. The open interest of沪银2506 is 321717, and the trading volume is 1098950; the open interest of沪银2512 is 104462, and the trading volume is 41908 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 793.25, 784.67, and 3347.95 respectively, with daily increases of 7.12, 14.20, and 60.01, and daily increase rates of 0.91%, 1.84%, and 1.83%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8295.00, with a daily increase of 104.00 and a daily increase rate of 1.27%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 33.57, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [2]. Inventory - Changes: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 914,191 kg, an increase of 1,405 kg from the previous day. The current COMEX gold inventory is 42,634,144, a decrease of 169,137.20 from the previous day; the current COMEX silver inventory is 496,891,266, an increase of 193011 from the previous day [2]. Related Assets - Price Changes: The current value of the US dollar index is 99.2880, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous day; the current value of the Standard & Poor's Index is 5484.77, an increase of 2.03% from the previous day; the current US Treasury yield is 4.4, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous day; the current price of Brent crude oil is 65.6, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.2879, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day [2]. Derivatives - Position Changes: The current position of the spdr Gold ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day; the current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day. The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33486, an increase of 481 from the previous day; the current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 32895, a decrease of 1451 from the previous day [2]. Macroeconomic Information - US Economic Data: In April, US tariff revenue surged by more than 60%, reaching at least $15 billion, setting a new monthly record. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 222,000, in line with expectations. The previous value was revised from 215,000 to 216,000. The US durable goods orders in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected increase of 2.0%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 1.0% to an increase of 0.9% [2]. - Fed Officials' Statements: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Thursday that the Fed has basically ruled out a rate cut in May. However, she also signaled that there is room for policy action in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250425
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-04-25 03:31