光大期货能化商品日报-20250425

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is affected by the US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes, and the market is in a state of repeated operation [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced arbitrage shipments, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure eases with the approaching summer demand [1][3] - The asphalt production profit has recovered, and the refinery's production enthusiasm has improved, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester product prices mainly follow the cost - end, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to run in a low - range [3][4] - The rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the approaching holiday production cut of downstream tire factories and cautious terminal orders [4][7] - The methanol supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose [7] - The polyolefin market is affected by tariff policies, with supply pressure easing and demand weakening [7][9] - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI 6 - month contract rose 0.52 dollars to 62.79 dollars/barrel (0.84% increase), Brent 6 - month contract rose 0.43 dollars to 66.55 dollars/barrel (0.65% increase), and SC2506 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel (1.00% increase). The US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes make the market volatile [1] - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, FU2507 fell 1.12% to 2998 yuan/ton, and LU2506 fell 0.86% to 3446 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market is supported by reduced shipments, and the high - sulfur market pressure eases with approaching summer demand [1][3] - Asphalt: On Thursday, BU2506 rose 0.38% to 3406 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 20.4% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased. The production profit has recovered, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester: TA509 fell 0.86% to 4370 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 1.67% to 4179 yuan/ton. The production load of polyester and ethylene glycol has changed, and product prices mainly follow the cost - end [3][4] - Rubber: On Thursday, RU2509 rose 40 yuan/ton to 14735 yuan/ton, NR fell 130 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR fell 60 yuan/ton to 11235 yuan/ton. The downstream tire factories are expected to cut production before the holiday, and the rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak [4][7] - Methanol: The supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose due to device maintenance and increased future arrivals [7] - Polyolefin: The price of polypropylene and polyethylene has changed. The refinery's maintenance increases, but the demand weakens due to tariff policies [7][9] - Polyvinyl Chloride: The market price is slightly adjusted. The supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on April 24 and 23, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [10] 3. Market News - The third - round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations this week may lead to Iran's crude oil return, but the new US sanctions on Iran limit the oil price increase. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas [12] - The Bank of England Governor believes that the concern about the US dollar losing its reserve currency status is "excessive" [12] 4. Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [14][15][18] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][31][35] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc [45][47][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][62][64] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP production, etc [69][70][72] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [74][75][76]