广金期货策略早餐-20250425

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to have a small increase in the short - term and remain at a high level in the medium - term due to low inventory and a positive automotive market [1]. - Steel prices are expected to decline gradually in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term because of high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - Price Outlook: Short - term, small increase with a running range of 19800 - 20100; medium - term, high - level operation in the range of 19500 - 21500 [1]. - Reference Strategy: Sell AL2505 - P - 19500 and hold until maturity [1]. - Core Logic: As of April 21, 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.2 million tons, down 1.60 million tons from last week and lower than the 80.6 million tons of the same period last year, at a 5 - year low. From January to March, automobile production and sales increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Steel) - Price Outlook: Short - term, gradual decline; medium - term, under pressure [2]. - Reference Strategy: Hold the sold call option RB2510 - C - 3450 of rebar and hold the purchased in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 of rebar [2]. - Core Logic: - Raw Material Inventory: Total 45 - port iron ore inventory this week was 14181.41 million tons, down 10.04 million tons week - on - week. Low - grade tradable port iron ore inventory is at a 5 - year high, and 6000 million tons of iron ore from Guinea's Simandou iron ore mining area may enter the market this year. Sample mine coking coal inventory was 333.34 million tons, down 0.65% week - on - week and up 7.05% year - on - year. Coal washing plant coking coal inventory was 181.33 million tons, down 6.03% week - on - week and down 2.45% year - on - year, still at a 5 - year high [3]. - Downstream Demand: Overall steel downstream demand is average. Building material demand drags down the consumption of five major steel products, which is weaker than in previous years. Construction project funds are in short supply, and construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. This week, rebar consumption was 259.94 million tons, down 5.07% week - on - week and 9.74% year - on - year. Consumption of five major steel products was 926.25 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week and 3.30% year - on - year. The impact of US tariff hikes on global consumption has not fully materialized, and relevant downstream industry demand support policies are yet to be introduced [4].