光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250425

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1758 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.79%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial price cuts. Urea supply increased, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% this week, exceeding 1 million tons. Demand was limited, with agricultural demand delayed and industrial demand mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and downstream procurement efforts [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated strongly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1380 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.07%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial rebounds in traders' quotes. The supply reduction of soda ash was difficult to reverse the loose pattern, and the supply volatility remained high. Demand was average, and downstream enterprises had a low willingness to stock up on a large scale. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to device changes, downstream replenishment efforts, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated weakly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.96%. The spot market price rebounded slightly. The supply had little impact on the market, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but the spot trading atmosphere improved recently. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, policies, and spot transactions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Urea: The futures price was 1758 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The spot price in Shandong and Henan was 1830 yuan/ton. Supply increased to 19.63 tons per day, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% to over 1 million tons. Demand was limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - Soda Ash: The futures price was 1380 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. The spot price was mostly stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 0.06 percentage points, and the weekly output decreased by 0.06%. Supply pressure was slightly relieved, and demand was average. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. - Glass: The futures price was 1135 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The spot price increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1281 yuan/ton. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.78 tons, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but spot transactions improved. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. Market Information - Urea: On April 24, the futures warehouse receipt was 4138, down 25 from the previous day. The daily output was 19.63 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous day. The operating rate was 85.13%, up 1.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory as of April 23 was 106.50 tons, up 17.52% from last week [4][5]. - Soda Ash and Glass: On April 24, the soda ash futures warehouse receipt was 4030, down 260 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2546; the glass futures warehouse receipt was 2541, unchanged. The soda ash industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.44%, down 0.06 percentage points. The output was 75.51 tons, down 0.06%. The inventory was 169.10 tons, down 0.11%. The glass market average price was 1281 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The daily output was 15.78 tons, unchanged. The inventory as of April 24 was 6547.33 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][18][20][22]. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodity research and have rich experience and many honors [25].