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电价改善迹象不断增加，火电基本面向好
Haitong Securities International·2025-04-25 06:04

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the utility sector, suggesting an "Outperform" rating for the industry based on expected returns exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [9][18]. Core Insights - Signs of improvement in electricity prices are emerging, with a reversal of the downward trend observed in recent months. The Q1 data from Huaneng and Huadian showed a smaller than expected price drop, attributed to several factors including increased gas power fees and a shift in focus from volume to price and efficiency [2][4]. - The new coal power upgrade plan (2025-2027) emphasizes deep peak regulation, load change rates, and carbon reduction measures, aiming for a 10%-20% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2024 levels [2][4]. - March 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in electricity consumption of 4.8%, with industrial power generation at 778 billion kWh, reflecting a slight growth despite a decline in thermal power generation [2][4]. Summary by Sections Electricity Price Trends - The downward trend in electricity prices has been reversed, with Q1 data showing minimal price drops of 1 cent and 0.4 cents, significantly lower than the anticipated 2-3 cents [2][4]. - Factors contributing to this change include increased gas power fees, a decrease in long-term contract volumes, and selective trading practices [2][4]. Power Generation Statistics - In March, national industrial power generation was 778 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while thermal power generation declined by 2.3% [2][4]. - Other energy sources showed positive growth, with hydro power up 9.5%, nuclear power up 23.0%, wind power up 8.2%, and photovoltaic power up 8.9% [2][4]. Coal and Electricity Pricing - Q1 coal prices fell significantly, with the average price for Qinhuangdao 5500KC coal at RMB 723/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [2][4]. - The average spot electricity price in Guangdong was RMB 339/kWh, down 11% year-on-year, indicating a widening coal-electricity price spread [2][4].