ZY-Tungsten(002378) 招商证券·2025-04-25 08:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, with an increase in sales of hard alloys and tools [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from its tungsten resource advantages and integrated industry chain layout, enhancing competitiveness in high-end hard alloy products [6]. - Future performance is projected to remain robust, with estimated net profits of 201 million, 244 million, and 302 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 36.73 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 16.07%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.72 billion yuan, a 19.5% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 55.2 in 2023 to 26.3 by 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][23]. Sales and Production Performance - The company’s tungsten concentrate production for 2024 is expected to be 3,739 tons, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year due to national mining control policies [6]. - Sales of tungsten powder are projected at 3,980 tons, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, while sales of carbide tools are expected to increase by 16.07% to 21.68 million pieces [6]. - The company has achieved a continuous increase in multi-product sales, leveraging its full industry chain synergy [6]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 5.05 billion yuan, an increase of 3.18 billion yuan year-on-year [6]. - The company’s debt ratio is projected to decrease to 57.08% in 2024, down 1.01 percentage points from the previous year [6].