Ping An Securities·2025-04-25 09:25Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) [1] Core Views - Luoyang Molybdenum has established itself as a leading international copper and cobalt producer, benefiting from a dual-driven model of mining and trading, with significant growth in revenue and profit driven by copper and cobalt production [8][9] - The company has a strong resource base, with world-class mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a diversified portfolio that includes tungsten and niobium operations in Brazil [8][9] - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of 2255.0 billion yuan and net profit of 150.7 billion yuan for 2025 [9] Summary by Sections Section 1: "Mining + Trading" Dual-Driven Model - The company operates globally in basic and rare metals mining and trading, ranking among the top ten copper producers worldwide, with significant operations in the DRC [14] - Luoyang Molybdenum has successfully executed several acquisitions during copper price downturns, enhancing its global resource layout [16] - The company has built a global metal trading network through strategic acquisitions, including IXM, which has strengthened its market position [17] Section 2: Copper and Cobalt Business Growth - The company operates two world-class mines in the DRC, TFM and KFM, with significant copper and cobalt resources [31] - Revenue from copper and cobalt has seen substantial growth, with a projected revenue of 506 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 80.71% year-on-year increase [36] - The copper production capacity is expected to reach 80-100 million tons in the long term, with ongoing expansion projects [34] Section 3: Copper Price Outlook - The report anticipates a tightening supply of copper, leading to sustained high prices, supported by strong demand from various sectors, including renewable energy and AI [8][9] - The long-term outlook for cobalt demand is also positive, with expectations of a gradual recovery in prices [9] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% in revenue and 55.3% in net profit from 2020 to 2024 [8][9] - The report compares Luoyang Molybdenum's valuation favorably against peers, suggesting potential for continued growth in a favorable industry environment [9]