Shouxiangu(SH:603896) EBSCN·2025-04-25 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but core products provide stable support. For the period from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, the company's quarterly revenue figures are 221 million, 132 million, 119 million, 220 million, and 171 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of +7.15%, -20.35%, -30.20%, -9.13%, and -22.68% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 77 million, 24 million, 18 million, 56 million, and 58 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +23.19%, -14.05%, -63.77%, -51.32%, and -24.32% respectively. The poor performance is mainly attributed to changes in the macroeconomic environment and weak consumer demand [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the company's core product categories shows a decline, with revenue from Ganoderma lucidum spore powder at 445 million yuan (65.75% of total revenue) down by 16.53% year-on-year, and revenue from Dendrobium candidum at 113 million yuan (16.63% of total revenue) down by 11.00% year-on-year. The sales model shows that the distribution model accounts for 58.57% (up 2.25 percentage points year-on-year), while direct sales (including online) account for 41.43%, with online sales at 171 million yuan (25.16% of total revenue) maintaining a stable layout [2] Marketing and International Expansion - The company is actively promoting marketing reforms and expanding its international presence. It continues to deepen the "famous doctors, famous medicines, famous stores" model, promoting the direct sales experience from Zhejiang to Shanghai and Jiangsu, and establishing a business pattern centered on Zhejiang with Shanghai and Jiangsu as wings. The company plans to add 10 specialty stores and strengthen cooperation with live streaming channels like Douyin and Li Jiaqi. In terms of internationalization, significant progress has been made in collaboration with the Mayo Clinic for research, advancing the commercialization of Ganoderma products in the U.S. and registering products in the EU [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The short-term recovery of consumer demand may impact the company's earnings elasticity. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 192 million and 224 million yuan (originally forecasted at 355 million and 417 million yuan, both down by 46%). The newly added forecast for 2027 is a net profit of 251 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.88%, 16.44%, and 12.23%. The current price corresponds to P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Given the company's product scarcity, technical standards barriers, and advantages in the entire industry chain, it has the ability to withstand cycles, and with policy support for traditional Chinese medicine, long-term growth is expected [3][4]