冠通研究：市场不确定性强，盘面窄幅波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - The impact of tariffs has eased, but the issue of the Fed's interest rate cut remains uncertain, with macro - suppression still present, limiting the upside space. Future attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate situation and domestic policy stimulus [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and rose today, then dived in the afternoon and closed down. Internationally, Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Politburo meeting on April 25 pointed out the need for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, maintaining sufficient liquidity and supporting the real economy. The smelting processing fee continues to expand negatively, and smelters are expected to face a round of maintenance. There are frequent disturbances at the mine end, and the supply side is expected to be tight. The downstream market trading sentiment is positive, and domestic visible inventories have been decreasing for weeks, supporting the upward trend of the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened lower and rose, then dived in the afternoon and closed down, at 77,440 yuan per ton. The number of long orders from the top 20 was 104,714, an increase of 2,620; the number of short orders was 104,896, a decrease of 372. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan per ton, and in South China was 230 yuan per ton. On April 23, 2025, the LME official price was $9,415 per ton, and the spot premium was -$4.5 per ton [3] Supply Side - As of April 18, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$33.65 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -3.37 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 41,600 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period. As of April 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 203,400 tons, a slight decrease of 1,825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 131,500 short tons, an increase of 1,703 short tons from the previous period [10]