宏观点评报告：4月政治局会议重在维稳，加紧实施存量政策，增量还需等待-20250425

Economic Outlook - The political bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, emphasized stability and the acceleration of existing policies, with new measures pending[2][13] - External shocks are increasing, necessitating a bottom-line mindset and preparedness for economic downturns, with a focus on tracking Q2 economic and policy developments[3][14] Policy Framework - The policy tone is primarily focused on stability, aiming to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a notable acceleration in the implementation of existing macro policies[3][14] - Monetary policy may include timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, with a recent net injection of 500 billion MLF reducing the urgency for immediate cuts[3][14] - Fiscal policy will expedite the issuance and utilization of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with recent issuances already accelerating[3][15] Consumption and Industry Support - Consumption policies aim to enhance consumer spending, particularly in service sectors such as dining, accommodation, health, and tourism, alongside new consumption initiatives totaling 300 billion[3][15] - Industry policies will promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, support emerging industries, and enhance financial backing for technological innovation[3][15][16] Real Estate and Capital Markets - Real estate policies will focus on urban renewal, high-quality housing supply, and stabilizing the real estate market without major stimulus measures[3][16] - The capital market strategy aims to maintain stability and activity, with a continuation of a fluctuating A-share market expected[3][17] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, renewed geopolitical tensions, and escalating tariff disputes[3][19]