供应趋于偏紧，后市震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic corn supply is expected to be tight, and the market is likely to fluctuate upward. The report suggests taking a long - position strategy by buying at low prices [1][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since April, domestic corn futures have experienced a trend of rising, then correcting, and rising again. The spot price initially rose with futures but later flattened. At the beginning of the month, the corn market was strong due to Sino - US trade conflicts, but then adjusted slightly in the spot market and significantly squeezed the premium in the futures market because of weak demand and warehouse - clearing by traders in North China before wheat procurement. In the second half of the month, the impact of wheat substitution decreased due to drought threats in new wheat - producing areas [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 USDA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The USDA's April report estimated the 2024/25 corn harvest area at 82.9 million acres, with a yield of 179.3 bushels per acre and a total output of 14.867 billion bushels. Feed demand is 5.75 billion bushels, food and processing demand is 6.89 billion bushels, exports are 2.55 billion bushels, and the year - end carry - over inventory is 1.465 billion bushels. Feed consumption decreased, exports increased, and carry - over inventory declined. The current US corn planting progress is 12%, higher than the five - year average of 10%. With favorable weather and increased new - crop area, production is expected to increase [6] 3.2.2 Brazil and Argentina's Production - According to CONAB's April estimate, Brazil's 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 125 million tons, slightly up from the March estimate. Consumption is expected to be 87.1 million tons, exports 34 million tons, and the carry - over inventory 7.4 million tons. The domestic balance sheet is looser than last year due to increased area and restored yield. In Argentina, the USDA estimates the 24/25 production at 50 million tons, the same as the March estimate, and exports at 36 million tons, 260,000 tons less than in 23/24. Overall, the production of Brazil and Argentina has increased compared to last year, and the supply - demand situation has improved [10] 3.2.3 Ukraine's Production - The USDA estimates Ukraine's 24/25 corn production at 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons (19% decline) from last year due to dry and hot weather and a significant drop in yield. Due to the decline in initial inventory and production, export capacity has decreased by 7.5 million tons to 22 million tons, and the ending carry - over inventory is 740,000 tons, the lowest in recent years. Traders estimate that Ukraine's 2025/26 corn production may reach 30 million tons, a significant increase from 25.2 million tons in 2024/25, as the yield may increase by 19% [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Grain Sales Progress - Since 2024/25, Chinese farmers' enthusiasm for selling corn has been high. As of April 17, the grain - sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 93%, 5% faster than the same period last year, and that in 7 major producing provinces was 93%, 6% faster. Farmers' remaining grain is only 7%, meaning they have basically sold out. In the future, the game between traders and downstream demand enterprises will be more critical [16] 3.3.2 Import Impact - China's corn imports have been at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 24/25 marketing year, the cumulative corn imports are less than 3 million tons, an 84% decrease from 18.48 million tons in the same period last year. There are almost no imports from the US for 9 consecutive months, and imports from Brazil have also significantly decreased, due to narrowed import profits and policy - regulated import volume. The annual corn imports in 24/25 are expected to be more than 10 million tons less than last year, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has lowered the annual import forecast to 7 million tons. The imports of alternative energy raw materials such as sorghum, barley, wheat, and broken rice are less than 9 million tons, about half of the same period last year. The reduction in imports will significantly ease the domestic supply pressure [19] 3.3.3 Demand Analysis - Feed consumption is expected to increase. The inventory of breeding sows in China began to rise in the second quarter of 2024, peaked in the fourth quarter, and then declined. In 2025, the pig inventory will mostly increase, though at a slower pace. Poultry feed consumption is expected to increase as egg - laying hens have been profitable for four consecutive years and are entering an expansion cycle, while broiler production is relatively stable. Ruminant feed consumption may remain low. The total feed production and sales are expected to increase this year. The latest statistics from the Feed Industry Association show that the national industrial feed production from January to February 2025 was 49.2 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In the deep - processing industry, due to weak macro - economic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit is not good. Under Sino - US tariff confrontation, the foreign trade situation is severe, which will continue to pressure the product sales of deep - processing enterprises. The deep - processing demand for corn is expected to be flat or slightly decrease compared to last year [22][23] 3.3.4 Supply Gap - As of April 17, the total inventory in North China is 27.57 million tons. Based on the monthly consumption of deep - processing and feed enterprises, the inventory of traders and farmers can be used for about 3.2 months, until mid - July, but the regional distribution is uneven, and Shandong has the largest supply - demand gap. If only considering the inventory of traders and farmers, the supply - demand gap is 15.39 million tons. In the Northeast, the overall supply and demand can be balanced with a slight surplus. The domestic corn market has a certain supply gap, and needs the supplement of wheat and feed rice [27]