赛默飞世尔科技：Taking measures to counteract macro headwinds-20250425

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Thermo Fisher, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher reported a revenue increase of 0.2% year-over-year to US$10.4 billion in 1Q25, with adjusted EPS rising 0.8% year-over-year to US$5.15, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - The company has revised its full-year revenue guidance to project growth between 1.0% and 3.1% for 2025, while adjusting its EPS guidance downward, expecting a range from a 0.6% decline to 4.4% growth due to macroeconomic factors [1][7]. - Management anticipates a US$500 million reduction in revenue guidance due to US policy changes affecting equipment sales, alongside a projected US$400 million revenue reduction from elevated tariffs between the US and China [7]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, revenue is estimated at US$43.806 billion, reflecting a 2.2% year-over-year growth, with adjusted net profit expected to be US$8.461 billion, a 2.5% increase [2][12]. - The adjusted EPS for FY25E is projected at US$22.42, with a P/E ratio of 19.3x [2][12]. - The company plans to invest US$2 billion over the next four years to expand its US manufacturing and R&D facilities, aiming to support long-term growth and market share expansion [7]. Valuation - The target price for Thermo Fisher has been revised down from US$690.00 to US$526.00, representing a 21.9% upside from the current price of US$431.64 [3]. - The DCF valuation indicates a total present value of US$226 billion, with an equity value of US$198.5 billion, leading to a price per share of US$526.00 [10].