股指期货周报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices fluctuated narrowly this week, with all three major indices recording small gains. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, with large-cap blue-chip stocks outperforming small and medium-cap stocks. The LPR in April remained stable as expected, and the Politburo meeting on Friday made the market sentiment relatively cautious. Market trading activity rebounded slightly compared to last week. Domestically, the Politburo meeting on April 25 released important policy signals, emphasizing "extraordinary cross - cycle adjustment" and the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, injecting medium - to long - term confidence into the market. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF achieved a net investment of 50 billion yuan, a new high since December 2023, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. Many listed companies recently announced share repurchase and increase plans, and over 70% of the companies that have disclosed annual reports plan to pay dividends. After the impact of tariff disturbances fades, the equity market will refocus on the domestic situation. Currently, the market trading volume has significantly decreased, and it is necessary to wait for the details of fiscal and monetary policies and further verification of economic data to attract incremental funds. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [6][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Contracts: IF2506 had a weekly increase of 0.66%, IH2506 decreased by 0.19%, IC2506 rose by 1.38%, and IM2506 increased by 2.05% [9]. - Spot Indices: The CSI 300 increased by 0.38%, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.33%, the CSI 500 rose by 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 1.85% [9]. 3.2 News Overview - On April 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.1% (unchanged from the previous period), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.6% (unchanged from the previous period). On April 25, the central bank carried out 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized improving the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, implementing more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, such as accelerating the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and creating new structural monetary policy tools [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.99%, the STAR 50 increased by 1.65%, the SME 100 rose by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.52% [16]. - External Main Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 increased by 3.83%, the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.41%, and the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.89% [17]. - Industry Sector Performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the automobile and beauty care sectors having relatively large increases, while the food and beverage and media sectors led the decline. Most industry main funds had net inflows, and the automobile sector had a large net inflow of funds [20][24]. - SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, and the capital market was relatively loose [28]. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of 3.887 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 85.97 billion yuan, and northbound funds had a total trading volume of 573.32 billion yuan. The basis of the IF and IH main contracts fluctuated, while the basis of the IC and IM main contracts strengthened [29][36][39][42][44]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [80].