2025年4月25日利率债观察：“适时降准降息”对债市有何影响？

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts, OMO rate cuts (and guiding LPR down), and structural monetary policy tool rate cuts within this year is relatively high. Different types of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts have different impacts on the bond market [1][8]. - Reserve requirement ratio cuts can release long - term funds at zero cost, stabilize bank net interest margins, and boost confidence, but they do not necessarily lead to a decline in bond yields. DR007 has already dropped significantly, and it is expected to steadily fall to near the OMO rate in the near future [2][9]. - Structural monetary policy tool rate cuts are slightly bearish for the bond market. In most cases, OMO rate cuts lead to a decline in bond yields. The 7D OMO rate may drop from the current 1.5% to 1.3%, and the 10Y Treasury yield may reach 1.5% this year [3][12]. - Bond investment should not adopt an "end - game mindset". When the market interest rate drops excessively, regulators will guide market expectations, and investors should maintain rationality in bond pricing [3][12]. 3. Summary by Related Content "Timely Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Rate Cuts" and Their Impact on the Bond Market - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, called for "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and rate cuts", different from the "opportunistic" statement in the first - quarter monetary policy committee meeting on March 18. "Timely" emphasizes adapting to the actual economic needs [1][8]. - The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts, OMO rate cuts (and guiding LPR down), and structural monetary policy tool rate cuts within this year is high, but their impacts on the bond market vary [1][8]. Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts - Reserve requirement ratio cuts can release long - term funds at zero cost, stabilize bank net interest margins, and have a signaling effect, but they do not necessarily lead to a decline in bond yields [2][9]. - Although no reserve requirement ratio cut has been implemented, DR007 has declined significantly. The average value of DR007 from early April to now is 1.72%, lower than the 1.88% average in March. It is expected to fall to near the OMO rate in the future [2][9]. Impact of Different Types of Rate Cuts - Structural monetary policy tool rate cuts are slightly bearish for the bond market as they do not guide DR down and reduce the urgency of OMO rate and DR cuts in the next stage [3][12]. - In most cases, OMO rate cuts lead to a decline in bond yields. The 7D OMO rate may drop from 1.5% to 1.3%, and the 10Y Treasury yield may reach 1.5% this year. Currently, bond yields have a relatively small upside and a relatively high probability of decline [3][12].